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October 23, 2014 | Last Updated 4:17 AM
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Mar 27 2014 10:06PM
 
DA won’t capitalise on ANC vote loss – poll
The ruling ANC is all set to retain its pole position in the province albeit with a sizable dent to its vote bank.. Picture: TNA
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TNA Reporter

Gauteng, the centre of South Africa’s economic and political gravity, is poised to deliver its voters’ verdict in a few weeks.

Gauteng Premier Nomvula Mokonyane, considered to be a close confidante of incumbent President Zuma, has been battling her critics over issues of governance in this economically advanced province of the republic.

Between the ANC not announcing an official premier candidate and the spirited challenge put up by Mmusi Maimane of the DA, Gauteng seemed all set for a battle royal.

Well, not quite.

The ruling ANC is all set to retain its pole position in the province albeit with a sizable dent to its vote bank.

The ANN7-C Voter Convenience Sample Poll indicates that the ANC will comfortably retain Gauteng province, with the opposition DA turning in a better performance than in 2009, although still falling short of challenging the ANC in its bid for power.

As per the polled respondents, the ANC enjoys support of 56% voters of Gauteng, the DA is supported by 24% voters, the EFF is bagging 8% of the votes, while Cope and others are getting 5% and 7% respectively.

Compared to the 2009 results when the ANC won 65% of the votes in the province, the ANN7-C poll projects a loss of about 9% of votes in the elections this year, whereas the DA is all set to better its 2009 tally of 21% by 3%.

What is interesting to note is that a vote loss for the ANC and Cope in Gauteng is not resulting in a direct transfer of votes to the DA, which is set to gain only 3% of the 11%-plus vote attrition happening in the vote banks of Cope and ANC combined. The rest is being appropriated between Julius Malema’s EFF and others. In effect, the DA is facing a political glass ceiling in being able to attract the left of the centre votes that are willing to consider non-legacy political options.

Juxtaposed against the national vote projections where the ANC is facing a marginal vote loss of 2%, Gauteng is indicating a more than four times greater attrition of 9% for the ANC. The DA is gaining 2% on votes nationally in the ANN7-C poll; in Gauteng the gain is marginally higher at 3%.

Nevertheless, the voting trend in Gauteng is indicative of some kind of voter rethink over the support for the legacy party of the freedom movement, the ANC.

What is of comfort to the ruling ANC is the fact that, unlike the other contested province, the Western Cape, their projected lead over the DA is in the double digits. Compared to the DA lead in the Western Cape of 7%, the ANC is leading Gauteng by almost 32%. – 700198

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